BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Red-shouldered Hawk In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainBirds of prey

Red-shouldered Hawk in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 408% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+408%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
336Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 408% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Red-shouldered Hawk In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.8 (95% range 2.3–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.8 (95% range 2.3–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.62.13.1
20272.72.23.1
20282.72.23.2
20292.72.33.2
20302.82.33.2

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CallahanFLORIDA132024
HilliardFLORIDA122025
CouncilGEORGIA112025
Miller XrdsFLORIDA102019
Seminole Hills 2FLORIDA102022
ColumbiaMISSISSIPPI102018
Wards CornerNORTH-CAROLINA102024
KinstonNORTH-CAROLINA102024
PinettaFLORIDA92025
OsceolaFLORIDA92025
CottonGEORGIA92025
NashvilleGEORGIA82025
ShilohGEORGIA82025
CorinthMISSISSIPPI82025
DortchesNORTH-CAROLINA82025
Hixtown SwmpFLORIDA72025
OwensboroGEORGIA72025
LacombeLOUISIANA71983
ForestMISSISSIPPI72024
MontagueNORTH-CAROLINA72025
RomeSOUTH-CAROLINA72025
EpesALABAMA62024
Doctors Inlet 2FLORIDA62018
Laurel HillFLORIDA62025
FitzgeraldGEORGIA62025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.