BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Red-shouldered Hawk In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainGeneralists

Red-shouldered Hawk in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 429% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+429%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
335Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Red-shouldered Hawk has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 429% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.7 (95% range 2.2–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Red-shouldered Hawk in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.7 (95% range 2.2–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.62.13.0
20262.62.13.1
20272.62.23.1
20282.72.23.1
20292.72.23.2

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Red-shouldered Hawk in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BloxhamFLORIDA172022
CallahanFLORIDA132024
OsceolaFLORIDA122024
MontagueNORTH-CAROLINA122024
HilliardFLORIDA112024
Miller XrdsFLORIDA102019
Seminole Hills 2FLORIDA102022
ColumbiaMISSISSIPPI102018
Wards CornerNORTH-CAROLINA102024
KinstonNORTH-CAROLINA102024
DudleyNORTH-CAROLINA102024
Big SandyTENNESSEE102024
MansfieldTENNESSEE102024
SurryVIRGINIA102024
ElamvilleALABAMA82024
PinettaFLORIDA82024
Hixtown SwmpFLORIDA72024
CottonGEORGIA72024
FinleysonGEORGIA72024
DoverGEORGIA72024
CouncilGEORGIA72024
LacombeLOUISIANA71983
ForestMISSISSIPPI72024
EpesALABAMA62024
Doctors Inlet 2FLORIDA62018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.