BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

European Starling in Virginia has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-77%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable European Starling Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has collapsed in Virginia: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

European Starling Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Virginia is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 0.00–62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-60%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Virginia is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 0.00–62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025160.0066
2026150.0065
2027140.0064
2028130.0063
2029110.0062

European Starling Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording European Starling in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Newbern38619821968
Churchville22520241966
Quinby16120241966
Great Falls13619781966
Backbay12419741966
Amherst8720241967
Edinburg8520241968
Chincoteag W7920241992
Taylorstown 27720242012
Stanley7420241966
Jerome7420231971
Colonial Pky7419981992
Marion6819821976
Rural Retrt6620241982
Irisburg5420241976
Taylorstown5320101967
Brandy Station5320242017
White Stone4920241966
Sharps4620241967
Gladys4120241994
Star Tannery3720241977
David3620131968
Newville3520241988
Branchville3320241966
Ivanhoe3119681966

European Starling Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.