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Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

European Starling Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

European Starling in Virginia has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-78%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable European Starling Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has collapsed in Virginia: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

European Starling Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Virginia is projected to fall about 64% by 2030 — from 33 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 0.00–62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-64%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Virginia is projected to fall about 64% by 2030 — from 33 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 0.00–62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026160.0066
2027150.0065
2028140.0064
2029130.0063
2030120.0062

European Starling Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording European Starling in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Newbern38619821968
Churchville37320251966
Edinburg14420251968
Jerome14220251971
Great Falls13619781966
Backbay12419741966
Star Tannery8520251977
Quinby8520251966
Chincoteag W7920241992
Colonial Pky7419981992
Stanley7320251966
Marion6819821976
Irisburg6720251976
Taylorstown 26620252012
Gladys6420251994
Moran5920251996
Blacksburg5520251988
Taylorstown5320101967
Natural Brid4320251974
Rural Retrt4020251982
David3620131968
Newville3520241988
Branchville3320241966
Ivanhoe3119681966
Sharps3020251967

European Starling Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.