BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesGeneralists

European Starling in West Virginia has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-64%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable European Starling Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has fallen sharply in West Virginia: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

European Starling Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in West Virginia is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 0.00–61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in West Virginia is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 0.00–61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025270.0064
2026270.0063
2027260.0062
2028250.0061
2029250.0061

European Starling Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording European Starling in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Arlee14919791966
Greer13020231966
Mt Storm10519751966
Paradise10120231966
Spencer9620231986
Pt Pleasant9020231973
Slate8620241980
Rockport8420241966
Welch8220231980
Sleepy Creek7319901966
Clinton7220241966
Berryburg6119961975
Ruthbelle6020241975
Bramwell5920231978
Smoot5720241980
Fayetteville5219961980
Glade Run4720021988
Hanover4620241980
Ghent4420241978
Smithfield4120241993
Strange Crk3920171992
Three Forks3820241971
Clendenin3620241979
Hubbardstown3520231966
Meadland3420241997

European Starling Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.