BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGeneralists

European Starling in Arkansas has edged up: up 21% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+21%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable European Starling Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for European Starling in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

European Starling Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Arkansas is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 9.4–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.4–3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Arkansas is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 9.4–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025219.732
2026219.632
2027219.632
2028219.532
2029209.432

European Starling Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording European Starling in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wilson29520241993
Avoca16120241967
Maynard11120241967
Centerton7920242010
Russell5620212010
Saffell5220191967
Coal Hill4820231967
Dell4620242010
Massard3620221967
Whitton3119911967
Harrisburg3020191967
Stark2720241967
England2520242010
Kelso2320162010
Havana1920212010
Hughes1720231967
Blakely1719991968
Farwell1720182010
Augusta 21620162002
Ulm1220241986
Eudora920161967
South Bend820221968
Augusta820011967
Zion820241969
Ravenden Springs820152010

European Starling Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.