BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

European Starling Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGeneralists

European Starling in Arkansas has edged up: up 23% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+23%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable European Starling Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for European Starling in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

European Starling Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 20 (95% range 9.5–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.5–3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 20 (95% range 9.5–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026219.732
2027219.732
2028219.631
2029209.531
2030209.531

European Starling Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording European Starling in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Maynard23020251967
Wilson18820251993
Avoca16120241967
Centerton7320252010
Russell5620212010
Saffell5220191967
Coal Hill4820231967
England4320252010
Massard3620221967
Whitton3119911967
Harrisburg3020191967
Kelso2320162010
Stark1920251967
Havana1920212010
Hughes1720231967
Blakely1719991968
Farwell1720182010
Augusta 21620162002
Zion1320251969
Augusta820011967
Ravenden Springs820152010
Springhill820212010
Eudora720251967
Marshall620182011
Lockesburg520182010

European Starling Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.