BirdAnalyst
Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesGeneralists

European Starling in Mississippi has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-64%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable European Starling Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has fallen sharply in Mississippi: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

European Starling Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Mississippi is projected to fall about 55% by 2029 — from 6.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.00–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-55%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–9.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Mississippi is projected to fall about 55% by 2029 — from 6.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.00–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.50.009.8
20263.30.009.6
20273.10.009.4
20282.90.009.3
20292.70.009.1

European Starling Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording European Starling in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Olive Branch17320011966
Olive Branch 26620222016
Dundee4120221970
Moon3720211996
Macon3220241966
Cockrum3120241966
Forest3020181972
Tchula 22119941976
Poplarville2019781972
Tchula 31320241995
Commerce1219931966
Necaise1220221982
Cybur1120191966
Amite River1120112009
Latimer1120191988
Trace Lee1020182015
Aberdeen920241970
Leaf River820132008
Tchula719751970
Tupelo620221966
Vicksburg Np620212016
Winterville620112009
Eagle Lake620242015
Latimer 2620232021
Corinth520241972

European Starling Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.