BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesGeneralists

European Starling in Tennessee has held roughly steady: up 9% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+9%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable European Starling Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for European Starling in Tennessee. See the full index history below.

European Starling Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Tennessee is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 83 in 2024 to a central estimate of 52 (95% range 31–73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
31–7395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Tennessee is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 83 in 2024 to a central estimate of 52 (95% range 31–73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025523073
2026523173
2027523173
2028523173
2029523173

European Starling Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording European Starling in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Humboldt57720241966
Allens Brdge35820231966
Glen34720241966
Peytonsville18620241966
Climer18520041967
Pond Creek15520241966
Collinwood13720241966
Big Sandy11020241966
Jasper9720241967
Indian Mound8719981966
Soddy7219811967
Campbellsville7020191966
Petersburg6720191966
Corryton Rd6620191966
Jones Gap6020191982
Mansfield5820241966
Red Bank5819781966
Belotes Bend5720181966
Jefferson Cty5720111966
Lovell5120191966
Union Hill4920241967
Oliver Spgs4920221966
Bradyville4720211966
Tullahoma4220151967
Indian Mound 24020232004

European Starling Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.