BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

European Starling Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesGeneralists

European Starling in Tennessee has edged up: up 16% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+16%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable European Starling Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for European Starling in Tennessee. See the full index history below.

European Starling Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Tennessee is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 61 in 2025 to a central estimate of 52 (95% range 31–73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
31–7395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Tennessee is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 61 in 2025 to a central estimate of 52 (95% range 31–73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026523173
2027523173
2028523173
2029523173
2030523173

European Starling Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording European Starling in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Allens Brdge35820231966
Collinwood21820251966
Glen20720251966
Climer18520041967
Peytonsville13420251966
Mansfield12220251966
Humboldt10020251966
Big Sandy9420251966
Indian Mound8719981966
Pawpaw 27520252013
Soddy7219811967
Campbellsville7020191966
Petersburg6720191966
Jasper6720251967
Corryton Rd6620191966
Pond Creek6120251966
Jones Gap6020191982
Red Bank5819781966
Belotes Bend5720181966
Jefferson Cty5720111966
Lovell5120191966
Union Hill4920241967
Oliver Spgs4920221966
Bradyville4720211966
Brownsville4520251966

European Starling Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.