BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGeneralists

European Starling in Missouri has edged down: down 21% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-21%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable European Starling Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for European Starling in Missouri. See the full index history below.

European Starling Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 32 (95% range 16–49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
16–4995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 32 (95% range 16–49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025321649
2026321649
2027321649
2028321649
2029321649

European Starling Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording European Starling in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hayti93720212016
Handley52020231967
Frazier15920241967
Madison15820241971
Blodgett14720242013
Cole Camp13819901971
Kingsville13220241992
Emden10120242017
Mincy9420242013
Bland9020241995
Sedalia9020241991
Syracuse7720241969
Kahoka7319981967
Cassville7020241967
Mcfall7020241994
New Point7020241994
Sni Mills6419901967
Norborne6020232006
Rensselaer5720241971
Kahoka25420242002
Millwood5120241999
Doe Run4720242015
West Plains4620242014
Hamilton4019851972
Milford3920242015

European Starling Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.