BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling Population Trend in Nevada

All statesGeneralists

European Starling in Nevada has surged: up 291% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+291%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable European Starling Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has surged in Nevada: up 291% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

European Starling Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Nevada is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 0.00–47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±176%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±176%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Nevada is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 0.00–47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±176%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025200.0046
2026200.0047
2027200.0047
2028200.0047
2029210.0047

European Starling Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording European Starling in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gardnerville18820121992
Toiyabe Nf10520241987
Fallon6520241992
Carson River6020052001
Ruby Valley 25820242004
Gardnerville 25420242013
Eureka4020241968
Ruby Valley3820011997
Chimney Res.3120242005
Oreana3020032002
Minerva2720241988
Piute Mdws2620242005
Ranchogrande2020241988
Majors Place1220241969
Mill City1020232015
Beatty920172006
Virgin Creek620181995
Frenchman519751973
Humboldt Nf520061993
Sand Pass420241987
Hiko420231968
Nelson420061995
Ash Meadows420102010
Bald Mtn.420131992
Vya319721972

European Starling Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.