BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

European Starling in Texas has risen sharply: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+68%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
214Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable European Starling Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has risen sharply in Texas: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

European Starling Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Texas is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 6.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.3 (95% range 3.3–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.3–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Texas is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 6.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.3 (95% range 3.3–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.33.213
20268.33.213
20278.33.213
20288.33.313
20298.33.313

European Starling Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording European Starling in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kingsville7920241967
Chandler 25720242005
Rhome4920241968
Manor4620242012
Easton 24220242014
Chandler4020041968
Dallas3720241967
Weatherford3320241968
Leander3320061988
Katy3120241968
Port Acres2920241994
Petronila2820241998
Carlos2720241993
Channing2520181968
Dalhart2520241994
Cleburne2320241996
Lone Oak2220221987
Lamesa2220241971
Lag Atascosa2120241988
Massey Lake2120241970
College Stn2119901990
Smyrna2120101995
Indianola2020241977
Henrietta2020221969
Danbury1920241967

European Starling Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.