BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

European Starling Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

European Starling in Texas has surged: up 86% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+86%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
215Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable European Starling Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has surged in Texas: up 86% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

European Starling Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Texas is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 7.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.3 (95% range 3.3–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.3–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Texas is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 7.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.3 (95% range 3.3–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.23.213
20278.23.213
20288.23.213
20298.33.213
20308.33.313

European Starling Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording European Starling in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dalhart16120251994
Katy8320251968
Kingsville7920241967
Chandler 25720242005
Dallas5020251967
Danbury4720251967
Manor4620242012
Weatherford4220251968
Chandler4020041968
Lamesa3620251971
Manor 23420252025
Leander3320061988
Lag Atascosa3120251988
Rock Island2920251974
Ola2520251967
Channing2520181968
Gainesville2420251967
Lone Oak2220221987
College Stn2119901990
Smyrna2120101995
Indianola2020241977
George West2020251969
Henrietta2020221969
Twichell2020251999
Miami1920171977

European Starling Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.