BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

European Starling Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGeneralists

European Starling in New Mexico has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-76%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable European Starling Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has collapsed in New Mexico: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

European Starling Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in New Mexico is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±91.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in New Mexico is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.010.005.5
20270.000.005.5
20280.000.005.5
20290.000.005.5
20300.000.005.5

European Starling Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording European Starling in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Valencia6119971968
Farmington5619871975
Aztec4219891988
Stinking Lk.3019991994
Capulin2519941993
Cebolla2220231973
Cooley Lake1620251968
La Plata1520131990
Ojo Sarco1220251968
La Plata 21120162014
Floyd1020251975
Pastura1020101995
Maljamar919751975
Mesilla620001992
Nageesi520161990
Laborcita 2520252022
Crownpoint419951970
Angel Fire 2420182005
Rosebud420252009
Hobbs420251994
Torreon320251975
San Antonio319771974
Gallinas320171992
Datil319951993
Mountainair320122000

European Starling Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.