BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling Population Trend in Montana

All statesGeneralists

European Starling in Montana has surged: up 142% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+142%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable European Starling Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has surged in Montana: up 142% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

European Starling Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Montana is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 31 (95% range 15–47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
15–4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Montana is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 31 (95% range 15–47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025301447
2026311447
2027311547
2028311547
2029311547

European Starling Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording European Starling in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Laurel21420221968
Clyde Park21020242018
Harlem20820211971
Pablo Res.14420241995
Philipsburg12920242015
Chinook11820242015
Kalispell10020241968
Two Dot10020241976
Church Hill9620242017
Winifred9220232023
Polson6820241972
Willow Creek 26720241982
Glen6620241977
Oswego6020091980
Augusta5720241976
Threemile Wa5520241993
Lambert5420242021
Willow Creek5319811972
Winifred 25220242024
Red Rock4820241973
Elliston4620241968
Beaverhead4420241973
Boulder4220241969
Flatwillow 24220232011
Twin Bridges4119761968

European Starling Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.