BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

European Starling Population Trend in Montana

All statesGeneralists

European Starling in Montana has surged: up 145% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+145%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable European Starling Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has surged in Montana: up 145% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

European Starling Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 31 (95% range 15–47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
15–4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Montana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 31 (95% range 15–47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
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European Starling Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording European Starling in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pablo Res.55120251995
Clyde Park23420252018
Harlem20820211971
Threemile Wa20520251993
Glen15320251977
Boulder11720251969
Brandenberg10620251968
Beaverhead10220251973
Winifred9220232023
Highwood6120251972
Oswego6020091980
Laurel6020251968
Church Hill6020252017
Two Dot5520251976
Reed Point5420251977
Willow Creek5319811972
Augusta5120251976
Shawmut5020251981
Red Rock4820241973
Flatwillow 24220232011
Twin Bridges4119761968
Chinook4120252015
Elliston4020251968
Philipsburg3920252015
Forsyth3820231980

European Starling Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.