BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

European Starling Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGeneralists

European Starling in North Dakota has increased: up 26% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+26%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable European Starling Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for European Starling in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

European Starling Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in North Dakota is projected to rise about 17% by 2030 — from 6.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 1.2–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in North Dakota is projected to rise about 17% by 2030 — from 6.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 1.2–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.01.215
20278.01.215
20288.01.215
20298.01.215
20308.01.215

European Starling Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording European Starling in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ft Yates6020041968
Walcott3520231967
Sydney3119831969
Abercrombie3020121967
Solen2320252005
Denbigh2020251968
Cooperstown1820251969
Buchanan1620251968
Sheyenne Lk1420251980
Dickinson1320251970
Abercrombie 21320162013
Zap1220241967
Kempton1020161967
Gorham1020251968
Danzig 21020252019
Horsehead Lk920251980
Bowman820251967
Bentley820241988
Parshall820061982
Lake George720231967
Braddock720231988
Stanley620241968
Golva620251980
Montpelier620251990
Bowesmont520131968

European Starling Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.