BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGeneralists

European Starling in North Dakota has edged up: up 20% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+20%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable European Starling Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for European Starling in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

European Starling Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in North Dakota is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.1 (95% range 1.3–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in North Dakota is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.1 (95% range 1.3–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.11.315
20268.11.315
20278.11.315
20288.11.315
20298.11.315

European Starling Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording European Starling in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dickinson9420241970
Ft Yates6020041968
Denbigh4620241968
Walcott3520231967
Sydney3119831969
Abercrombie3020121967
Edgeley1520241980
Sheyenne Lk1320241980
Abercrombie 21320162013
Dunn Center1220241971
Zap1220241967
Kempton1020161967
Horsehead Lk1020241980
Cooperstown920241969
Bentley820241988
Parshall820061982
Bowman720241967
Buchanan620241968
Stanley620241968
Gorham620161968
Solen620242005
Bowesmont520131968
Turtle Mtns520231980
Carson520241988
Danzig 2520242019

European Starling Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.