BirdAnalyst
Species · Connecticut · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling Population Trend in Connecticut

All statesGeneralists

European Starling in Connecticut has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-63%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable European Starling Trends in ConnecticutNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has fallen sharply in Connecticut: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

European Starling Population Forecast in Connecticut

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Connecticut is projected to fall about 80% by 2029 — from 35 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 0.00–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-80%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Connecticut is projected to fall about 80% by 2029 — from 35 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.1 (95% range 0.00–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025110.0031
2026100.0030
20279.20.0029
20288.10.0027
20297.10.0026

European Starling Survey Routes in Connecticut

Routes recording European Starling in Connecticut.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mid Haddam12620241973
New Hartford11319871972
Uncasville8320241973
Danbury7320231968
E Hartland4719921966
Granby4120241988
Mystic4020231973
Southington3020241973
Willimantic2720181967
Woodstock2420071968
Warren1520111972
Woodstock 21520242016
Westbrook920241969
Buckingham820221966
Sherman620191972
Long Hill620171972
No Woodbury420241967
Warren 2320242012
Greenwich120181967
New Hartford120241994

European Starling Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.