BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling Population Trend in California

All statesGeneralists

European Starling in California has increased: up 34% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+34%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
236Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable European Starling Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for European Starling in California. See the full index history below.

European Starling Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in California is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 15–40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
15–4095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in California is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 15–40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025281540
2026281540
2027281540
2028271540
2029271540

European Starling Survey Routes in California

Routes recording European Starling in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Oroville75020241972
Athlone28120071972
Orland26220221972
Parkfield24120241968
Cedarville21920241974
Likely20620241971
Hollister18120111973
Livermore17419911972
Gravesboro16719951968
Elsinore Mtn15320241970
Dorris13720191972
Yolla Bolly13120241973
Cordova12919811971
Westley12820241972
Nubieber12720181970
Tres Pinos 212520112005
Kelso Valley10420241973
Collegeville 210420232007
Moreno10220241968
Coulterville10020161997
Red Bluff9520241968
Santa Cruz I9519881988
Riovista9420241968
South Lake9320062006
Ingalls8920011973

European Starling Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.