BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling Population Trend in Vermont

All statesGeneralists

European Starling in Vermont has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-79%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable European Starling Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has collapsed in Vermont: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

European Starling Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Vermont is projected to fall about 63% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 0.00–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-63%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Vermont is projected to fall about 63% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 0.00–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.60.0026
20268.50.0024
20277.50.0023
20286.40.0022
20295.40.0021

European Starling Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording European Starling in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Waterville9219801967
Hinesburg8519941966
W Rutland4920241966
Grand Isle4420241967
Bristol3320181995
St Johnsbury2120241970
Newbury2120041986
Greensboro2020241967
Shaftsbury1920241966
Fletcher1820241968
North Pownal1720241966
Northfld Fls1620211980
Hardwick1620241966
Colchester1120241986
S Reading920241966
S Wallingfrd920221966
East Haven920241966
East Calais720241966
Stowe720241988
Marlboro520241966
Middlesex520241968
Landgrove420241966
Gaysville420211966
Newbury 2420232005
Stratton220241966

European Starling Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.