BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

European Starling Population Trend in Vermont

All statesGeneralists

European Starling in Vermont has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-76%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable European Starling Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has collapsed in Vermont: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

European Starling Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Vermont is projected to fall about 72% by 2030 — from 18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 0.00–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-72%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Vermont is projected to fall about 72% by 2030 — from 18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 0.00–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.10.0025
20278.10.0024
20287.00.0023
20296.00.0022
20304.90.0021

European Starling Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording European Starling in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Waterville9219801967
Hinesburg8519941966
Gaysville7020251966
Bristol5120251995
East Haven3620251966
North Pownal3220251966
Fletcher3220251968
Shaftsbury3020251966
Colchester2320251986
Newbury2120041986
Northfld Fls1620211980
Hardwick1620241966
S Reading920241966
S Wallingfrd920221966
W Rutland920251966
Grand Isle820251967
Landgrove720251966
Greensboro720251967
Stowe720241988
St Johnsbury520251970
East Calais420251966
Newbury 2420232005
Middlesex220251968
Marlboro120251966
Stratton120251966

European Starling Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.