BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

European Starling Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesGeneralists

European Starling in Nebraska has surged: up 96% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+96%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable European Starling Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has surged in Nebraska: up 96% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

European Starling Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Nebraska is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 30 in 2025 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 15–39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
15–3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Nebraska is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 30 in 2025 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 15–39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026261438
2027261438
2028261438
2029261439
2030271539

European Starling Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording European Starling in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hendley30020252018
Liberty25720031967
Wheeler Co20820251978
Stratton14420251975
Arthur12120251985
Murray Lake10220251987
Dalton8320251968
Sparta6920251967
Winside 26720222005
Kearney6620251968
Sumner5420251967
Crescent Lk5020101981
Tilden4420252019
Kenesaw4120251967
Johnson3920251967
Agate 23320252002
Murdock3020252018
Chambers2920252023
Liberty 22920072004
Julian2820251969
Richland2420251968
Ponca2420252018
Brownson2420252025
Maxwell2320252018
Bartlett2019761967

European Starling Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.