BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

European Starling Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesGeneralists

European Starling in New Jersey has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-56%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable European Starling Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has fallen sharply in New Jersey: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

European Starling Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in New Jersey is projected to fall about 36% by 2030 — from 54 in 2025 to a central estimate of 35 (95% range 3.6–66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-36%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.6–6695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in New Jersey is projected to fall about 36% by 2030 — from 54 in 2025 to a central estimate of 35 (95% range 3.6–66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026411073
2027408.671
2028387.069
2029365.368
2030353.666

European Starling Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording European Starling in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Masonville35819701966
Holmansville31320091969
Pedricktown29720121991
Clarksville29619911969
Deepwater26119771969
Woodbury Hgt24620251967
Cape May Ch19120131992
Del Haven15119911991
Villas13419811979
Robbinsville12519791966
Pedricktown 211820252013
Bennett Mill 211520252016
Passaic8619691969
Greenwich8220251966
Cranbury8020251987
Mt Misery7319891976
Keyport7120221986
Bennett Mill6920001966
Kemah Lake6120241966
Dover5320231977
Pottersville5020241977
Six Points4920251978
Bloomsbury4920251969
Ancora4419771966
Croton 24420252008

European Starling Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.