BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesGeneralists

European Starling in New Jersey has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-59%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable European Starling Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has fallen sharply in New Jersey: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

European Starling Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in New Jersey is projected to fall about 44% by 2029 — from 64 in 2024 to a central estimate of 36 (95% range 4.3–67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-44%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.3–6795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in New Jersey is projected to fall about 44% by 2029 — from 64 in 2024 to a central estimate of 36 (95% range 4.3–67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025421174
2026419.372
2027397.670
2028375.969
2029364.367

European Starling Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording European Starling in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Masonville35819701966
Holmansville31320091969
Pedricktown29720121991
Clarksville29619911969
Deepwater26119771969
Pedricktown 221620242013
Cape May Ch19120131992
Woodbury Hgt15520241967
Del Haven15119911991
Villas13419811979
Robbinsville12519791966
Greenwich12020241966
Bennett Mill 210420242016
Winslow8720241989
Passaic8619691969
Gillette7720241988
Croton 27720242008
Ramseysburg7520241995
Mt Misery7319891976
Keyport7120221986
Bennett Mill6920001966
Cranbury6720241987
Kemah Lake6120241966
Bloomsbury5720241969
Dover5320231977

European Starling Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.