BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling Population Trend in Michigan

All statesGeneralists

European Starling in Michigan has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-56%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
100Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable European Starling Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has fallen sharply in Michigan: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

European Starling Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Michigan is projected to fall about 44% by 2029 — from 46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 2.6–49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-44%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–4995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Michigan is projected to fall about 44% by 2029 — from 46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 2.6–49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025307.153
2026296.052
2027284.951
2028273.750
2029262.649

European Starling Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording European Starling in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Maple Grove31520241967
Holt21820241969
Nashville21320241968
Hamtramck20719841978
Drayton Plns18219871973
Cedar Run16719991994
Juniata16020241966
Lapeer13120242000
New Troy11020241971
Coopersville10020241979
North Branch9819991974
Ola9720241974
Owendale9620171978
Hamburg 29120242004
Bell Oak8520141966
Walloon Lake8120041977
Traverse Cty7519921974
St Charles7420191967
Waldenburg7220171968
Fowlerville7120191974
Big Rapids7019901967
Mayfield6720222000
Mottville6620241967
S Lyons6519921966
Cunard6220211973

European Starling Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.