BirdAnalyst
Species · Illinois · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

European Starling Population Trend in Illinois

All statesGeneralists

European Starling in Illinois has declined: down 40% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-40%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable European Starling Trends in IllinoisNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for European Starling in Illinois. See the full index history below.

European Starling Population Forecast in Illinois

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Illinois is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 69 (95% range 41–97). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
41–9795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Illinois is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 69 (95% range 41–97). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267244100
2027714399
2028714398
2029704298
2030694197

European Starling Survey Routes in Illinois

Routes recording European Starling in Illinois.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Milford40120251966
Grape Creek19120252001
Beaucoup19020251971
Wayne18720251966
Royalton18620252001
Atkinson16020241966
Alden15120252019
Terre Haute14020251966
York14020251993
St Morgan13820221967
Marshall13620252001
Caledonia13320251993
Fairdale12420252019
Le Roy12220251993
Monticello12020251976
Dudleyville11520252001
Cherry Val11420031972
Dailey11020251967
Jamestown10620251966
Birds10420241976
Seneca10320251993
Mt Vernon9920251971
Gulfport9120251971
Gridley9020252001
Humphrey8720251972

European Starling Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.