BirdAnalyst
Species · Illinois · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling Population Trend in Illinois

All statesGeneralists

European Starling in Illinois has declined: down 43% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-43%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable European Starling Trends in IllinoisNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for European Starling in Illinois. See the full index history below.

European Starling Population Forecast in Illinois

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Illinois is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 70 (95% range 42–98). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
42–9895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Illinois is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 70 (95% range 42–98). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257345101
20267244101
20277244100
2028714399
2029704298

European Starling Survey Routes in Illinois

Routes recording European Starling in Illinois.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wayne34520241966
Jamestown20520241966
Fairbury17520241976
Caledonia17220241993
Mt Vernon17020241971
Chandlervill16520241971
Atkinson16020241966
St Morgan13820221967
Pontiac13320241978
Janesville12020241972
Beaucoup11820241971
Cherry Val11420031972
York11220241993
Gulfport10720241971
Monticello10620241976
Birds10420241976
Marshall10320242001
Gridley8920242001
Allerton Park8720242001
Fairland8520241967
Concord8320241967
Itasca8220241966
Humphrey8220241972
Duncan Mills8220241993
Dudleyville8020242001

European Starling Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.