BirdAnalyst
Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesGeneralists

European Starling in Massachusetts has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-76%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable European Starling Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has collapsed in Massachusetts: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

European Starling Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Massachusetts is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 45 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±122.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±122.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Massachusetts is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 45 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±122.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.0036
20260.000.0036
20270.000.0036
20280.000.0036
20290.000.0036

European Starling Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording European Starling in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Marion20620241966
Mansfield12820241968
N Oxford7620241968
E Pepperell7319941966
Princeton6819761969
Gay Head5620241996
Cheshire5019941969
Belchertown4820241967
Chilmark4219831969
Newburyport3120221967
Chesterfield3120241967
Holden2420241977
Prattville2320191966
Warren 22220242010
Warren2120091968
N Orange2120241968
Cummington 22120242015
Monterey1920242019
Maynard1620221967
S Barre1520241968
Hancock1520151997
Cummington1220141968
Pittsfield1220161967
Wellfleet1020071966
Brockton720191967

European Starling Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.