BirdAnalyst
Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

European Starling Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesGeneralists

European Starling in Massachusetts has collapsed: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-75%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable European Starling Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has collapsed in Massachusetts: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

European Starling Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Massachusetts is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±124.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±124.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Massachusetts is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±124.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.0037
20270.000.0037
20280.000.0037
20290.000.0037
20300.000.0037

European Starling Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording European Starling in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Belchertown9320251967
E Pepperell7319941966
Gay Head7220251996
Princeton6819761969
Cheshire5019941969
Chilmark4219831969
Chesterfield3720251967
Newburyport3120221967
S Barre2920251968
Mansfield2720251968
Marion2520251966
Cummington 22520252015
Prattville2320191966
N. Andover2320251995
N Oxford2220251968
Maynard2120251967
Warren2120091968
Warren 21620252010
Hancock1520151997
Holden1320251977
Cummington1220141968
Pittsfield1220161967
Monterey1220252019
Wellfleet1020071966
N Orange1020251968

European Starling Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.