BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesGeneralists

European Starling in Kentucky has edged down: down 20% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-20%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable European Starling Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for European Starling in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

European Starling Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Kentucky is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 65 in 2024 to a central estimate of 88 (95% range 57–119). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
57–11995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Kentucky is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 65 in 2024 to a central estimate of 88 (95% range 57–119). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258857119
20268857119
20278857119
20288857119
20298857119

European Starling Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording European Starling in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Plum31420241966
Pleasurevill18820241979
Iron Bridge17219981966
Cedar Grove16820241966
Eastview15820241967
Million15019861966
Buena Vista14620171966
Goshen13719991966
Johnsonville13620211966
Morganfield13320242022
Demunbruns11920211966
Shelbyville11619781966
Glencoe11520221966
Dixie11120191967
Keysburg10920241968
Levee 210720192007
Boxville10519831966
Staffordsvil10319971996
Sewell Shop9820231966
Lovelacevile8820241967
Hustonville8720241966
Beattyville8220011966
Drakesboro8120031966
Sunnybrook7920221968
Lebanon Junction7520242000

European Starling Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.