BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

European Starling Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

European Starling in New York has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-54%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
128Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable European Starling Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has fallen sharply in New York: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

European Starling Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in New York is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 67 in 2025 to a central estimate of 36 (95% range 2.3–70). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-46%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–7095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in New York is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 67 in 2025 to a central estimate of 36 (95% range 2.3–70). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026427.976
2027406.574
2028395.173
2029383.772
2030362.370

European Starling Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording European Starling in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Romulus50120001968
Jones Beach34420131966
Macdougall28120251969
Watertown26220121967
Churchville23220251968
Argyle21220241968
E Youngstown20020251966
Mt Morris17020251967
Naples16620251966
Durham15319761966
Dryden13820251966
Branchport13420241967
Salem13020251967
Manorville11520241966
Cattaraugus11220191967
Castile11120251967
Ballston Lk10819951967
Hauppauge10520181966
West Seneca10520041966
N Victory 210420211978
Cicero Ctr10220251966
Randolph9720181967
Hopkinton9420211968
Cayuga9320251969
Hamburg9220251967

European Starling Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.