BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

European Starling in New York has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-59%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
128Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable European Starling Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has fallen sharply in New York: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

European Starling Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in New York is projected to fall about 48% by 2029 — from 68 in 2024 to a central estimate of 35 (95% range 2.0–69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-48%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–6995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in New York is projected to fall about 48% by 2029 — from 68 in 2024 to a central estimate of 35 (95% range 2.0–69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025417.774
2026406.373
2027384.971
2028373.470
2029352.069

European Starling Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording European Starling in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Romulus50120001968
Jones Beach34420131966
Churchville28420241968
Macdougall26420241969
Watertown26220121967
Argyle21220241968
E Youngstown18120231966
Durham15319761966
Canadice L14920241968
Byron14420241967
Naples14320241966
Orleans14220241967
Branchport13420241967
Cayuga12820241969
E Newark11820241967
Manorville11520241966
Cattaraugus11220191967
Ballston Lk10819951967
Hauppauge10520181966
West Seneca10520041966
N Victory 210420211978
Cicero Ctr10220241966
Ogdensburg10120241979
Duanesburg9820241966
Randolph9720181967

European Starling Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.