BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGeneralists

European Starling in North Carolina has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-52%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable European Starling Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has fallen sharply in North Carolina: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

European Starling Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in North Carolina is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 24 (95% range 11–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in North Carolina is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 24 (95% range 11–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025251338
2026251238
2027251238
2028241237
2029241137

European Starling Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording European Starling in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Beargrass20319811966
Jarvisburg16319991992
Craven Gap11019751969
Shallotte9519911967
Jamesville8220241983
Cherryville8019681966
Sawmill7320241990
Congleton7320242001
Sturgills6720242001
Speed6120241966
Call6120241968
Dortches5620241990
Climax5420241966
Monticello5220241990
Rowland5120241990
Old Trap4820242010
California 24720242014
Pinelog4720242001
Fairmont4619811968
Copeland4620241968
Arapahoe4419951966
Saxapahaw4320231966
Ernul4320092001
Jarvisburg 24220222000
Mattamuskeet4120211998

European Starling Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.