BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

European Starling Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGeneralists

European Starling in North Carolina has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-52%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable European Starling Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has fallen sharply in North Carolina: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

European Starling Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 24 (95% range 11–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 24 (95% range 11–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026251238
2027251237
2028241237
2029241137
2030241136

European Starling Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording European Starling in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Beargrass20319811966
Jarvisburg16319991992
Craven Gap11019751969
Shallotte9519911967
Dortches9520251990
California 29020252014
Speed8920251966
Cherryville8019681966
Sawmill7120251990
Mooresville 26420252006
Jamesville6020251983
Congleton5520252001
Myrtle Grove5120251966
Rowland5120241990
Old Trap4820242010
Rose4720251968
Fairmont4619811968
Eden4620251987
Arapahoe4419951966
Ostwalt4420252012
Saxapahaw4320231966
Ernul4320092001
Sturgills4220252001
Lake Surf4220251998
Mattamuskeet4120211998

European Starling Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.