BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

European Starling Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

European Starling in Minnesota has fallen sharply: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-67%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable European Starling Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has fallen sharply in Minnesota: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

European Starling Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Minnesota is projected to fall about 33% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.3 (95% range 0.00–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-33%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Minnesota is projected to fall about 33% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.3 (95% range 0.00–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026100.0025
20279.90.0024
20289.30.0024
20298.80.0023
20308.30.0023

European Starling Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording European Starling in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Whitewater9020001994
Le Roy8820251993
Caledonia 28620252013
Evergreen7220251967
Lakeville7120251968
Austin7120231993
Huntley6320251967
Courtland6220251978
Edwards3920241973
Fairmont2920251993
Chatfield2819991967
Chatfield 22820252003
Maynard2120151967
Ashby2020211997
Gluek1920191967
Lake Bronson1820111978
Worthington1820252004
Brainerd1720241993
Hartland1620171967
Minnetonka1620251969
Princeton1520251969
Le Center1420251993
New London1420241994
Chokio North1320251993
Franklin1220251993

European Starling Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.