BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

European Starling in Minnesota has fallen sharply: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-70%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable European Starling Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has fallen sharply in Minnesota: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

European Starling Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 8.7 (95% range 0.00–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 8.7 (95% range 0.00–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025110.0025
2026100.0025
20279.80.0024
20289.20.0024
20298.70.0023

European Starling Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording European Starling in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Le Center9520231993
Whitewater9020001994
Lakeville7920211968
Austin7120231993
Greenbush5020231995
Courtland4220241978
Edwards3920241973
St Stephen3720161967
Le Roy3620241993
Arlington3520241967
Chatfield2819991967
Franklin2820241993
Chandler2720231969
Ash Creek2720241975
Evergreen2220241967
Maynard2120151967
Debs2120241969
Chatfield 22120242003
Ashby2020211997
Gluek1920191967
Lake Bronson1820111978
Brainerd1720241993
Hartland1620171967
Huntley1520241967
Worthington1420242004

European Starling Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.