BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

European Starling in Arizona has declined: down 42% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-42%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable European Starling Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for European Starling in Arizona. See the full index history below.

European Starling Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Arizona is projected to rise about 63% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.04–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+63%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–4.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Arizona is projected to rise about 63% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.04–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.50.184.8
20262.40.154.7
20272.40.114.7
20282.40.074.6
20292.30.044.6

European Starling Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording European Starling in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Araby2320231992
Palo Verde 21820242014
Florence1419881968
Wickenburg1120232019
Skull Valley1020241997
Cactus Forest1020241991
Cibola Lake920211993
Palo Verde820131992
Hope 2820192014
Laguna720231968
Maine619971992
New River520161975
Williams520131993
Peach Spring520241992
House Rock419821982
Red Rock 2420162015
Casa Grande420211989
Round Rock319721968
Mormon Lake319741969
Quartzsite320131977
Vicksburg319891968
Cutter320141995
Redington319961994
Portal219931975
Yampai219761973

European Starling Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.