BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesGeneralists

European Starling in Pennsylvania has declined: down 38% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-38%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
133Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable European Starling Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for European Starling in Pennsylvania. See the full index history below.

European Starling Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Pennsylvania is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 73 in 2024 to a central estimate of 57 (95% range 35–79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
35–7995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Pennsylvania is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 73 in 2024 to a central estimate of 57 (95% range 35–79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025603882
2026593781
2027583680
2028583680
2029573579

European Starling Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording European Starling in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Doe Run72920241969
Akron47519971989
Sugar Grove38320241980
Scheafferstn34920011966
Mt Gretna31520001966
Quakertown30319891970
Drehersville 225320242000
Middletown25120241973
West Grove22519961966
Mt Gretna 222120222001
Jacobus21320241986
Brunnerville 221220242010
Espyville21020241967
Mount Joy20920241978
Labott20819831966
Ephrata20019881969
Pottstown19419871966
Aspers18719891968
Sardis18519741967
Virginia18020241969
Sporting Hil16519771977
Brick Tavern16120241990
Drehersville16019991966
Eldred15120221973
Sigel14920241981

European Starling Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.