BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

European Starling Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesGeneralists

European Starling in Pennsylvania has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-37%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
133Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable European Starling Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for European Starling in Pennsylvania. See the full index history below.

European Starling Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 57 (95% range 35–78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
35–7895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 57 (95% range 35–78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026593781
2027583780
2028583680
2029573579
2030573578

European Starling Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording European Starling in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Akron47519971989
Scheafferstn34920011966
Mt Gretna31520001966
Quakertown30319891970
Schaefferstown 225820252002
Mount Joy25120251978
Arnot22720251969
West Grove22519961966
Mt Gretna 222120222001
Sugar Grove21920251980
Labott20819831966
Ephrata20019881969
Pottstown19419871966
Brunnerville 218920252010
Aspers18719891968
Sardis18519741967
Middletown16820251973
Sporting Hil16519771977
Leola16420251998
Berwick16320251985
Martinsburg16220251970
Drehersville16019991966
Eldred15120221973
Harmonsburg14320251966
Plesant Grov14320241966

European Starling Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.