BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

European Starling Population Trend in Washington

All statesGeneralists

European Starling in Washington has risen sharply: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+52%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
102Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable European Starling Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has risen sharply in Washington: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

European Starling Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Washington is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 40 (95% range 19–60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
19–6095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Washington is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 40 (95% range 19–60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025401960
2026401960
2027401960
2028401960
2029401960

European Starling Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording European Starling in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
South Elma43620241975
Wapato31620221971
Pomona26819991998
Harwood16819971993
Mendota15919881977
Columbia Nwr15320221992
Ewan15120191983
Selah14620232000
Mesa14220081994
Warm Beach13520171968
Chewelah13220211977
Pe Ell11020231993
Scootney Reservoir10220242009
Port Angeles10020241970
Mukilteo9020241993
Raymond8920211993
Mendota 28920001989
Malden8620241998
Hanford Site8619961988
Richland7820242006
Potholes7320231996
Moses Lake6920221973
Warm Beach 26720242018
Reardan6520241968
Camas6020181971

European Starling Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.