BirdAnalyst
Species · South Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

European Starling Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesGeneralists

European Starling in South Carolina has collapsed: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-91%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable European Starling Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

European Starling has collapsed in South Carolina: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

European Starling Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in South Carolina is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 6.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in South Carolina is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 6.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.80.0015
20271.30.0014
20280.760.0014
20290.270.0013
20300.000.0013

European Starling Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording European Starling in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pendleton12019761966
Salem7120252010
Boiling Spgs5419791967
Bishopville4720251970
Little Mtn4119881966
Landrum3419921972
Boykin Ml Pd3219681966
Salem Xrd3020191982
Owings2820041992
Chesnee2420151992
Dillon2020211970
Anderson1720181977
Holly Hill1620251972
Johns Isle1519791966
Foreston1420211966
Red Bluff1420251996
Coward1020251966
Pinewood820191998
Olar620031998
Plum Branch520211977
Nixonville519951988
Jamestown420031967
Campobello420242010
Blacksburg420131998
Mount Pisgah420251998

European Starling Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.