BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

European Starling Population Trend in Florida

All statesGeneralists

European Starling in Florida has edged down: down 18% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-18%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
111Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable European Starling Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for European Starling in Florida. See the full index history below.

European Starling Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Florida is projected to rise about 180% by 2030 — from 2.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±232.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+180%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±232.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, European Starling in Florida is projected to rise about 180% by 2030 — from 2.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±232.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.00.0012
20275.90.0012
20285.90.0012
20295.80.0012
20305.80.0012

European Starling Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording European Starling in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shawano 223120112004
Kendall12619911987
Boca Raton11019941968
Dale Mabry10919881966
Oak Grove9620111969
Ft Waltn Bch7920111966
Redlands7220241994
Broward6819731966
Sunniland Gr5820211975
Scottsmoor5720251968
Lovedale3420111987
Santa Rosa2720031987
Davie2720171987
Hilliard2120241967
Plantation K2120041974
Pleasant Gr1820091987
Gardner1419991987
Andytown1219981997
Blackwater1220111990
Hixtown Swmp1120151988
Citrus Park1120251989
St Lucie1020251987
Ridge Harbor1020251991
Doctor Inlet920071967
Childs820101966

European Starling Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.