BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Osprey Population Analysis

PandionidaeBirds of preyPandion haliaetus

Osprey has surged: up 483% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+483%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1,176RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Osprey

The Osprey (Pandion haliaetus) is a North American member of the Osprey (Pandionidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the birds of prey.

Size
21.5–23.5 in long (55–60 cm) — a large fish-eating raptor (typical for the family)
Habitat
Open country, woodlands, cliffs and wetlands, hunting from the air or a high perch.
Diet
Live prey — small mammals, birds, reptiles, fish and large insects (carrion for vultures).
Range
Recorded on 1,176 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 46 states, most concentrated in the Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Family
Pandionidae · Birds of prey

Notable Osprey TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Osprey. See the full index history below.

Osprey Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Osprey is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.27–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.30Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.27–0.3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Osprey is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.30 (95% range 0.27–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.290.260.32
20270.290.260.32
20280.300.270.33
20290.300.270.33
20300.300.270.34

Where the Osprey Is Detected

BBS routes recording Osprey, sized by most recent count.

Osprey Population Trend by State

Osprey population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama+818%197240
Alaska+254%199125
Arizona+86%19938
Arkansasinsufficient datan/a2
California+131%197195
Colorado+393%199825
Connecticut+586%19906
Delaware+656%196815
Florida+301%196898
Georgia+573%198146
Idaho+110%197237
Illinois+291%20018
Indiana+4%20139
Iowainsufficient datan/a2
Kentucky-61%19905
Louisiana+128%199420
Maine+94%197142
Maryland12×196847
Massachusetts14×199316
Michigan+970%198324
Minnesota-7%197732
Mississippiinsufficient datan/a7
Missouriinsufficient datan/a5
Montana+189%197142
Nebraskainsufficient datan/a1
Nevadainsufficient datan/a4
New Hampshire+54%199115
New Jersey+409%198023
New Mexicoinsufficient datan/a2
New York42×197243
North Carolina-10%196847
Ohioinsufficient datan/a9
Oregon+764%197172
Pennsylvania+338%197539
Rhode Islandinsufficient datan/a3
South Carolina+520%199114
South Dakota-5%20006
Tennessee12×198211
Texas-61%198710
Utah+572%199522
Vermont+213%19997
Virginia+158%197025
Washington+393%197270
West Virginia+3%20039
Wisconsin+538%196956
Wyoming+102%197532

Osprey Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Osprey population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
BCR 4+283%199617
Northern Pacific Rainforest+255%197088
Great Basin12×197291
Northern Rockies+81%1970114
Boreal Hardwood Transition+62%196959
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain20×198525
Atlantic Northern Forest+337%197166
Sierra Nevada+25%197519
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau+581%199338
Badlands and Prairies-6%198613
Prairie Hardwood Transition+754%197357
Central Hardwoods+100%199023
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas-36%20057
Mississippi Alluvial Valley+261%199114
Southeastern Coastal Plain+164%1968144
Appalachian Mountains13×197580
Piedmont14×198346
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast+940%1968114
Peninsular Florida+412%196873
Coastal California+992%197634
Sierra Madre Occidental+59%19936
Gulf Coastal Prairie+18%19997

Osprey Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 483% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.