BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Osprey Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesGeneralists

Osprey in New Jersey has surged: up 488% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

+488%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Osprey Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Osprey has surged in New Jersey: up 488% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Osprey Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Osprey in New Jersey is projected to rise about 10% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.58–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.58–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Osprey in New Jersey is projected to rise about 10% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.58–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19782029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.472.4
20261.40.502.4
20271.50.532.4
20281.50.552.4
20291.50.582.5

Osprey Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Osprey in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ocean City2020241979
Six Points720241998
Toms River220241997
Woodbury Hgt120002000
Greenwich120121978
Del Haven119911991
Albion119911991
Spraguetown 2120072003
Sandbrook120232023
New Bedford120112011
Croton119861986
Hope119861986
Bloomsbury120101990
High Point120002000
Keyport120062006
Cranbury120232023
Friendship119951995
Pomona120032003
Spraguetown119991999
Pedricktown 2120222018
Cape May Ch120131993
Pedricktown120052005
Ramseysburg120222006

Osprey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.