BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Osprey Population Trend in New York

All statesBirds of prey

Osprey in New York has surged: up 42× on the route-weighted index since 1972.

42×Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Osprey Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Osprey in New York. See the full index history below.

Osprey Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Osprey in New York is projected to rise about 34% by 2030 — from 0.28 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.16–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.38Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.16–0.5995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Osprey in New York is projected to rise about 34% by 2030 — from 0.28 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.16–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.350.130.56
20270.350.140.57
20280.360.150.58
20290.370.150.58
20300.380.160.59

Osprey Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Osprey in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Huntington1920231971
Westhampton420241982
Jones Beach420131990
Ogdensburg420252016
Macdougall220251997
Orleans220252017
Pulaski220191985
Blue Ridge N220252009
Underwood219961979
Willsboro220242006
Manorville120171994
Bedford119841984
Oxford 2120192019
Westbrookvle120172017
Oneonta119971978
E Newark120242024
Romulus119721972
Dryden119821982
Trumansburg120242018
Horseshoe L.120172011
Branchport120242024
Canadice L120231997
Mendon120182018
Hamburg120112011
East Java119961996

Osprey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.