BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Osprey Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

Osprey in New York has surged: up 45× on the route-weighted index since 1972.

45×Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Osprey Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Osprey has surged in New York: up 45× on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Osprey Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Osprey in New York is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 0.48 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.16–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.38Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.16–0.5995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Osprey in New York is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 0.48 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.16–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.340.130.56
20260.350.140.57
20270.360.140.58
20280.370.150.59
20290.380.160.59

Osprey Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Osprey in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Huntington1920231971
Macdougall820241997
Westhampton420241982
Jones Beach420131990
Cicero Ctr320242007
Orleans220242017
Pulaski220191985
Ogdensburg220242016
Underwood219961979
Willsboro220242006
Philadelphia220232005
Manorville120171994
Bedford119841984
Oxford 2120192019
Westbrookvle120172017
Oneonta119971978
E Newark120242024
Romulus119721972
Dryden119821982
Trumansburg120242018
Horseshoe L.120172011
Branchport120242024
Canadice L120231997
Mendon120182018
Hamburg120112011

Osprey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.