BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Osprey Population Trend in Utah

All statesBirds of prey

Osprey in Utah has surged: up 572% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

+572%Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Osprey Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Osprey in Utah. See the full index history below.

Osprey Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Utah is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 0.15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.12–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.12–0.2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Utah is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 0.15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.12–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.170.100.24
20270.180.110.24
20280.180.110.25
20290.180.120.25
20300.190.120.26

Osprey Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Osprey in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kamas520251999
Logan Canyon220162016
Bryce Canyon220122012
Hanna220152015
Bicknell220252008
Oak City119961996
Beaver120092003
Navajo Lake120251986
Bear River120242024
Randolph119951995
M Warner Res120231998
Callao120251999
Alton 2120232021
Dixie Nf120251993
Beck 2120012001
Snowville120142014
Vernal120172009
Ferron120152007
Alton120111998
Hardware Ranch120152005
Ant Flat-Ogden Can120222022
Jensen120032003

Osprey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.