BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Osprey Population Trend in Utah

All statesGeneralists

Osprey in Utah has surged: up 578% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

+578%Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Osprey Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Osprey has surged in Utah: up 578% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

Osprey Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Utah is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.12–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+37%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.12–0.2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Utah is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.12–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.170.100.24
20260.170.100.24
20270.180.110.25
20280.180.110.25
20290.190.120.26

Osprey Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Osprey in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kamas620241999
Navajo Lake520231986
Callao419991999
Logan Canyon220162016
Bryce Canyon220122012
Dixie Nf220241993
Hanna220152015
Oak City119961996
Beaver120092003
Randolph119951995
M Warner Res120231998
Alton 2120232021
Beck 2120012001
Snowville120142014
Vernal120172009
Ferron120152007
Bicknell120132008
Alton120111998
Hardware Ranch120152005
Ant Flat-Ogden Can120222022
Jensen120032003

Osprey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.