BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Osprey Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Osprey in Minnesota has held roughly steady: up 1% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+1%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Osprey Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Osprey in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Osprey Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.15
20260.070.000.15
20270.070.000.15
20280.070.000.15
20290.070.000.15

Osprey Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Osprey in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bemidji319681968
Nebish220231982
Wigwam Bay220151979
Edwards220241996
Mahtowa220111993
Tamarac Nwr120231999
Minnetonka120241999
Cass Lake119811981
Princeton120132013
Osseo120232016
Knapp120242024
St Stephen120082008
Cromwell120231994
Mille Lacs120182007
Backus119861975
Evergreen120221999
Sawbill Lndg120062006
Hart Lake120092009
Island Lake119831983
Cohasset120041975
Debs120152008
Crane Lake120222013
Lude119921992
Brook Park120142004
New London120072007

Osprey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.