BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Osprey Population Trend in Alabama

All statesBirds of prey

Osprey in Alabama has surged: up 818% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+818%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Osprey Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Osprey in Alabama. See the full index history below.

Osprey Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Alabama is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.46 (95% range 0.20–0.71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.46Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.20–0.7195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Alabama is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.46 (95% range 0.20–0.71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.420.160.67
20270.430.170.68
20280.440.180.69
20290.450.190.70
20300.460.200.71

Osprey Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Osprey in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Alabama Pt 22620192004
Chacaloochee Bay1120192009
Wheeler Dam620252014
Pine Grove520252015
Guntersville520172002
Stevenson520242009
Greensport420252017
Alabama Pt420031967
Dauphin Is 3420212021
Talladega320252021
Dauphin Is 2220191991
Billingsley220252006
Whitehouse220212021
Triana220112010
Riverside220122010
Gainestown Ferry220112008
St Florian120242024
Valhermoso Spgs120092007
Mt Olive119971997
Maytown120232023
Cottonton120252011
Grangeburg120082008
Castleberry120192019
Dauphin Is119891987
Epes120241990

Osprey Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.