BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Osprey Population Trend in Alabama

All statesGeneralists

Osprey in Alabama has surged: up 713% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+713%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Osprey Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Osprey has surged in Alabama: up 713% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Osprey Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Alabama is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.44 (95% range 0.18–0.70). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.44Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.18–0.7095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Alabama is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.44 (95% range 0.18–0.70). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.400.150.66
20260.410.160.67
20270.420.170.68
20280.430.170.69
20290.440.180.70

Osprey Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Osprey in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Alabama Pt 22620192004
Chacaloochee Bay1120192009
Pine Grove920242015
Guntersville520172002
Stevenson520242009
Alabama Pt420031967
Dauphin Is 3420212021
Greensport320242017
Dauphin Is 2220191991
Billingsley220222006
Cottonton220242011
Whitehouse220212021
Calebee220242022
Wheeler Dam220232014
Lakeview220242016
Triana220112010
Riverside220122010
Gainestown Ferry220112008
St Florian120242024
Valhermoso Spgs120092007
Mt Olive119971997
Maytown120232023
Grangeburg120082008
Castleberry120192019
Dauphin Is119891987

Osprey Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.