BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Osprey Population Trend in Oregon

All statesBirds of prey

Osprey in Oregon has surged: up 764% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+764%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Osprey Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Osprey has surged in Oregon: up 764% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Osprey Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Oregon is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 0.61 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.24–0.68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.46Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.24–0.6895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Oregon is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 0.61 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.24–0.68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.440.220.66
20270.440.220.67
20280.450.230.67
20290.460.230.68
20300.460.240.68

Osprey Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Osprey in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Modoc Point 21320252024
Wedderburn1320251991
Joseph520251998
Winberry420231972
Sparta420251994
Dayton420251994
Nicolai Mtn.320251994
Elkton320251974
Clearwater320251991
Tualatin220242000
Scappoose220251996
Umpqua220231990
Fandango Can220102010
Wizard Falls220172000
Modoc Point220181975
Emigrant Lake 2220252002
Bly 2220112011
Garfield220221988
Svensen219921990
Granite220042001
Umatilla220232021
Shellrock120181986
Sandy River120061994
Albee120132013
Santiam120252009

Osprey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.