BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Osprey Population Trend in Oregon

All statesGeneralists

Osprey in Oregon has surged: up 566% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+566%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Osprey Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Osprey has surged in Oregon: up 566% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Osprey Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Oregon is projected to rise about 105% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.44 (95% range 0.22–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+105%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.44Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.22–0.6695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Oregon is projected to rise about 105% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.44 (95% range 0.22–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.420.200.64
20260.420.200.64
20270.430.210.65
20280.430.220.65
20290.440.220.66

Osprey Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Osprey in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Modoc Point 2520242024
Scappoose420231996
Winberry420231972
Secret Val320221978
Tualatin220242000
Umpqua220231990
Fandango Can220102010
Wizard Falls220172000
Wedderburn220241991
Modoc Point220181975
Bly 2220112011
Joseph220241998
Dayton220241994
Garfield220221988
Svensen219921990
Granite220042001
Twickenham220242010
Umatilla220232021
Shellrock120181986
Sandy River120061994
Albee120132013
Santiam120162009
Imnaha120232018
Summit Pr119991997
Cool Camp120001974

Osprey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.