BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Osprey Population Trend in Virginia

All statesBirds of prey

Osprey in Virginia has surged: up 158% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+158%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Osprey Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Osprey has surged in Virginia: up 158% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Osprey Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Virginia is projected to rise about 41% by 2030 — from 0.40 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.28–0.84). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+41%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.56Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.28–0.8495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Virginia is projected to rise about 41% by 2030 — from 0.40 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.28–0.84). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.530.240.81
20270.530.250.82
20280.540.260.83
20290.550.270.83
20300.560.280.84

Osprey Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Osprey in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Colonial Pky2419981992
Cape Charles620181992
White Stone520251968
Surry520251994
Brodnax420252003
Gloucester320241994
Chincoteag W320241992
Pungo320251975
Port Royal220251986
Churchville119981998
Tryme120182018
Jerome120192015
Walkers120161997
Pw Forest Pk119981998
Brandon120221992
Covesville120232023
Carters Brdg119971997
Mannboro120232023
Hall120232023
Sharps120131974
Ringgold120092009
Branchville120161990
Backbay119681968
Cornland120101990
Finchley120152014

Osprey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.