BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Osprey Population Trend in Michigan

All statesBirds of prey

Osprey in Michigan has surged: up 970% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

+970%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Osprey Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Osprey in Michigan. See the full index history below.

Osprey Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Michigan is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 0.23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.08–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–0.3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Michigan is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 0.23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.08–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19782030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.180.060.29
20270.180.070.30
20280.190.070.30
20290.190.070.30
20300.190.080.31

Osprey Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Osprey in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gilchrist320001988
Remus320251992
Chippewa Lk.220251997
New Buffalo220032003
Brocky Lake220102008
Galesburg220242010
Lapeer220252016
Bergland119901990
Hungerford120252017
Imp Lake119921992
Belding 2120242015
Ishpeming119851983
Seney Nwr120251992
Lawrence120182018
Muskallonge120181978
Tahquamenon119951993
Lake City120102010
Nashville120242019
Riggsville119911991
Richmond120002000
Skeels119811981
Sand Lake119941994
Deckerville119961996
Cohoctah120252021

Osprey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.