BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Osprey Population Trend in Alaska

All statesGeneralists

Osprey in Alaska has surged: up 359% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

+359%Since 1991TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Osprey Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Osprey has surged in Alaska: up 359% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

Osprey Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Alaska is projected to fall about 51% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.05–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-51%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Alaska is projected to fall about 51% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.05–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19842029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.040.20
20260.120.040.21
20270.130.040.21
20280.130.050.21
20290.130.050.22

Osprey Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Osprey in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mud River520241996
Kanuti Lake520242014
Birch Lake220232008
Burma Road220111996
Unalakleet River220242001
Hather Creek220241996
Anvik River220241998
Sheep Mtn220012001
Kotzebue220242022
Northway120182018
Coldfoot120222022
Happy Valley120002000
Nicholai Sl120082008
Kanuti Canyn120232012
Willow120182018
St. Mary'S120022002
Kobuk River (Short)119911991
Porcupine R.120011997
Cordova120142014
Gweek River120021994
Wrangell (Short)119841984
Petersville119871987
Cold Bay120232019
Lake Louise120032003

Osprey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.