BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Osprey Population Trend in Alaska

All statesBirds of prey

Osprey in Alaska has surged: up 254% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

+254%Since 1991TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Osprey Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Osprey in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Osprey Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Alaska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.12 (95% range 0.04–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±80.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Alaska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.12 (95% range 0.04–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19842030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.110.030.20
20270.120.030.20
20280.120.030.20
20290.120.040.21
20300.120.040.21

Osprey Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Osprey in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mud River520241996
Kanuti Lake520242014
Birch Lake220232008
Burma Road220111996
Unalakleet River220242001
Hather Creek220241996
Anvik River220241998
Sheep Mtn220012001
Kotzebue220252022
Northway120182018
Coldfoot120222022
Happy Valley120002000
Nicholai Sl120082008
Kanuti Canyn120232012
Willow120182018
St. Mary'S120022002
Kobuk River (Short)119911991
Porcupine R.120011997
Cordova120142014
Gweek River120021994
Wrangell (Short)119841984
Petersville119871987
Seven Lakes120242024
Cold Bay120232019
Lake Louise120032003

Osprey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.