BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Osprey Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Osprey in North Carolina has held roughly steady: down 4% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-4%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Osprey Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Osprey in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Osprey Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Osprey in North Carolina is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 0.29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Osprey in North Carolina is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 0.29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.250.000.66
20260.250.000.66
20270.250.000.66
20280.240.000.66
20290.240.000.66

Osprey Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Osprey in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jarvisburg 21020222000
Myrtle Grove720241966
Arcola520241976
Mattamuskeet320191998
Merrimon220231972
Beargrass219811981
California220071994
Belgrade220192017
Newport220231995
Cypress Cr220162012
Jarvisburg219991992
Hertford220141999
Reelsboro220172001
Shallotte119901967
Wards Corner120142014
Hallsboro119951992
Sheep Ridge120242024
Mashoes119821975
Broad Creek120231994
Speed120241983
Kinston120151992
Oakboro120162016
Brevard120242019
Chowan River120042004
Cherokee120242023

Osprey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorkohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.