BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Osprey Population Trend in Florida

All statesGeneralists

Osprey in Florida has surged: up 289% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+289%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
97Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Osprey Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Osprey has surged in Florida: up 289% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Osprey Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Florida is projected to rise about 39% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.5–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+39%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Florida is projected to rise about 39% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.5–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.11.42.7
20262.11.52.7
20272.11.52.7
20282.11.52.7
20292.21.52.8

Osprey Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Osprey in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Scottsmoor4120241968
Winter Gardn3120191988
Vero Beach1620221993
Weaver Stn1220191988
Punta Gorda920151980
Sandy820151987
Shawano720021999
Merritt Isl720111991
Ft Waltn Bch620111966
Childs620221966
Citrus Park520241994
Pleasant Grove 2520242010
Wildernes Pk520141992
Plantation K420041966
Arbuckle420211987
Lake Buffum420241988
Lovedale420111988
Ridge Harbor420241996
San Antonio320241971
Mabel320111967
Ft Lonesome320241970
Alligator Pt320241987
Key Largo319911988
Myakka Head 2320212012
Shawano 2320112005

Osprey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.