BirdAnalyst
Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Osprey Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesGeneralists

Osprey in Louisiana has surged: up 106% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

+106%Since 1994TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Osprey Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Osprey has surged in Louisiana: up 106% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

Osprey Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Louisiana is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.04–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±123.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±123.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Louisiana is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.04–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±123.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19882029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.110.030.18
20260.110.030.19
20270.110.030.19
20280.110.040.19
20290.120.040.19

Osprey Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Osprey in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ramah520241990
Morgan City320112011
Port Allen220132009
Zwolle220162005
River Road120212013
Bickham119961996
Linville120122012
Hackberry119991999
Lake Cove120172017
Glencoe120142014
Brousville120242024
Forked Island120172008
Pearl River120212008
Belair120232001
Grand Isle120192013
Kraemer120232023
Berwick120181988
Ltl Chenier120191995
Hackberry 2120182018
Burr Ferry120232023

Osprey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.