BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Osprey Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesBirds of prey

Osprey in South Dakota has held roughly steady: down 5% on the route-weighted index since 2000.

-5%Since 2000TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
18YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Osprey Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Osprey in South Dakota. See the full index history below.

Osprey Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Osprey in South Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.06 (95% range 0.01–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Osprey in South Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.06 (95% range 0.01–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19952030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.050.000.10
20270.050.000.10
20280.060.010.10
20290.060.010.11
20300.060.010.11

Osprey Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Osprey in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hill City220132007
Custer220172009
Silver City220122012
Rochford120182003
Geddes119971997
Long Draw120251995

Osprey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.