BirdAnalyst
Species · South Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Osprey Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Osprey in South Carolina has surged: up 456% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

+456%Since 1991TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Osprey Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Osprey has surged in South Carolina: up 456% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

Osprey Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Osprey in South Carolina is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 0.43 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.17–0.53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.35Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–0.5395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Osprey in South Carolina is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 0.43 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.35 (95% range 0.17–0.53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.320.140.50
20260.330.140.51
20270.330.150.52
20280.340.160.52
20290.350.170.53

Osprey Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Osprey in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kiawah Island920241998
Rome219941994
Johns Isle119741974
Jamestown120002000
Hardeeville120221997
Adams Run119911991
Foreston119871987
Prosperity120182017
Plum Branch120232008
Bennettsville120142014
New Ellenton120182018
Pinewood120012001
Red Bluff120222017
Ridgeway120122010

Osprey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.