BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Osprey In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGeneralists

Osprey in Great Basin has surged: up 789% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+789%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
90Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Osprey has surged in Great Basin: up 789% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Osprey In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Great Basin is projected to rise about 140% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.22–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+140%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.36Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.22–0.5095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±82.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Great Basin is projected to rise about 140% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.22–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.340.200.47
20260.340.210.48
20270.350.210.48
20280.350.220.49
20290.360.220.50

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Osprey in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Iron GateCALIFORNIA262019
RirieIDAHO62023
BatesIDAHO52023
Modoc Point 2OREGON52024
CallaoUTAH41999
NighthawkWASHINGTON42024
HackamoreCALIFORNIA32003
EwanWASHINGTON32019
YakimaWASHINGTON32024
NubieberCALIFORNIA22006
BartleCALIFORNIA21999
Crowder FlatCALIFORNIA22002
Fall River MillsCALIFORNIA22011
GiffordIDAHO21997
SpringfieldIDAHO22018
Daniels ResIDAHO21998
PrestonIDAHO22016
Fandango CanOREGON22010
Modoc PointOREGON22018
JosephOREGON22024
UmatillaOREGON22023
Wizard FallsOREGON22017
Bly 2OREGON22011
AsotinWASHINGTON22024
PrescottWASHINGTON22019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.