BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Osprey In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainBirds of prey

Osprey in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 20× on the route-weighted index since 1985.

20×Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Osprey in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Osprey In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 63% by 2030 — from 0.26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.42 (95% range 0.22–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+63%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.42Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.22–0.6195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 63% by 2030 — from 0.26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.42 (95% range 0.22–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.380.180.57
20270.390.200.58
20280.400.200.59
20290.410.210.60
20300.420.220.61

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Osprey in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Grand IsleVERMONT72024
OgdensburgNEW-YORK42025
MacdougallNEW-YORK22025
OrleansNEW-YORK22025
PulaskiNEW-YORK22019
WillsboroNEW-YORK22024
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA22024
RomulusNEW-YORK11972
TrumansburgNEW-YORK12024
BranchportNEW-YORK12024
Canadice LNEW-YORK12023
MendonNEW-YORK12018
HamburgNEW-YORK12011
RandolphNEW-YORK12018
E YoungstownNEW-YORK11982
PenfieldNEW-YORK12013
N Victory 2NEW-YORK12016
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK12025
NaplesNEW-YORK12015
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK12025
CrescentNEW-YORK12019
Herner CrnsOHIO12025
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA12025
North PownalVERMONT12016
BristolVERMONT11999

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.