BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Osprey In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

Osprey in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 23× on the route-weighted index since 1985.

23×Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Osprey has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 23× on the route-weighted index since 1985.

Osprey In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 0.63 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.42 (95% range 0.23–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.42Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.23–0.6295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 0.63 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.42 (95% range 0.23–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.380.190.57
20260.390.200.58
20270.400.210.59
20280.410.220.61
20290.420.230.62

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Osprey in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MacdougallNEW-YORK82024
Grand IsleVERMONT72024
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK32024
OrleansNEW-YORK22024
PulaskiNEW-YORK22019
OgdensburgNEW-YORK22024
WillsboroNEW-YORK22024
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK22023
Herner CrnsOHIO22024
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA22024
RomulusNEW-YORK11972
TrumansburgNEW-YORK12024
BranchportNEW-YORK12024
Canadice LNEW-YORK12023
MendonNEW-YORK12018
HamburgNEW-YORK12011
RandolphNEW-YORK12018
E YoungstownNEW-YORK11982
PenfieldNEW-YORK12013
N Victory 2NEW-YORK12016
NaplesNEW-YORK12015
CrescentNEW-YORK12019
North PownalVERMONT12016
BristolVERMONT11999

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.