BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Osprey In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGeneralists

Osprey in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 290% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+290%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Osprey has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 290% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Osprey In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.12 (95% range 0.04–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.12 (95% range 0.04–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.110.040.19
20260.110.040.19
20270.120.040.19
20280.120.040.19
20290.120.040.19

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Osprey in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CornvilleMAINE42024
Otisfield GrMAINE32011
HarmonyMAINE32023
CooperMAINE22021
DebloisMAINE22005
Seboomook LkMAINE21984
Pillsbury PdMAINE21968
St DavidMAINE22004
UnderwoodNEW-YORK21996
NewcastleMAINE12023
Wilson MillsMAINE12021
BethelMAINE12004
GreenwoodMAINE12022
HartfordMAINE12024
Bowdoin CtrMAINE12011
ManchesterMAINE11982
East TroyMAINE12005
WarrenMAINE11989
BrooksMAINE11984
EastbrookMAINE12023
HancockMAINE12024
CastineMAINE12006
AuroraMAINE12019
Moose RiverMAINE11997
CarrabassettMAINE12007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.