BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Osprey In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestBirds of prey

Osprey in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 337% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+337%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Osprey in Atlantic Northern Forest. See the full index history below.

Osprey In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 36% by 2030 — from 0.20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.05–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-36%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 36% by 2030 — from 0.20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.05–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.120.040.20
20270.120.040.20
20280.120.040.20
20290.120.040.20
20300.130.050.20

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Osprey in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Otisfield GrMAINE32011
HancockMAINE32025
HartfordMAINE22025
CooperMAINE22021
DebloisMAINE22005
Seboomook LkMAINE21984
Pillsbury PdMAINE21968
St DavidMAINE22004
Blue Ridge NNEW-YORK22025
UnderwoodNEW-YORK21996
NewcastleMAINE12023
Wilson MillsMAINE12021
BethelMAINE12004
GreenwoodMAINE12022
Bowdoin CtrMAINE12011
ManchesterMAINE11982
East TroyMAINE12005
WarrenMAINE11989
HarmonyMAINE12025
BrooksMAINE12021
EastbrookMAINE12023
CastineMAINE12006
AuroraMAINE12019
Moose RiverMAINE11997
CarrabassettMAINE12007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.