BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Osprey In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainGeneralists

Osprey in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 150% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+150%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
143Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Osprey has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 150% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Osprey In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 0.28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.27–0.46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.36Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.27–0.4695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 0.28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.27–0.46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.340.250.44
20260.350.260.44
20270.350.260.45
20280.360.260.45
20290.360.270.46

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Osprey in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Alabama Pt 2ALABAMA262019
Chacaloochee BayALABAMA112019
Jarvisburg 2NORTH-CAROLINA102022
Kiawah IslandSOUTH-CAROLINA92024
Myrtle GroveNORTH-CAROLINA72024
Ft Waltn BchFLORIDA62011
SurryVIRGINIA52024
Alabama PtALABAMA42003
Dauphin Is 3ALABAMA42021
LovedaleFLORIDA42011
DarienGEORGIA42019
WrightsvilleGEORGIA42023
Grenada LakeMISSISSIPPI42019
Alligator PtFLORIDA32024
St Vincent IFLORIDA32024
AberdeenMISSISSIPPI32023
MattamuskeetNORTH-CAROLINA32019
BillingsleyALABAMA22022
CottontonALABAMA22024
WhitehouseALABAMA22021
CalebeeALABAMA22024
Dauphin Is 2ALABAMA22019
Gainestown FerryALABAMA22011
Mossy HeadFLORIDA22008
MiccosukeeFLORIDA22021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.