BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Osprey In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsBirds of prey

Osprey in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 100% on the route-weighted index since 1990.

+100%Since 1990TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Osprey in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Osprey In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 36% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.02–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-36%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±85%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 36% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.02–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.040.020.07
20270.040.020.07
20280.040.020.07
20290.050.020.07
20300.050.020.07

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Osprey in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wheeler DamALABAMA62025
TrianaALABAMA22011
KarnakILLINOIS22010
RomeOHIO21999
Valhermoso SpgsALABAMA12009
Valhermoso Spg 2ALABAMA12014
Beaverdam LkILLINOIS12013
PimentoINDIANA12015
AzaliaINDIANA12024
MillersburgINDIANA12019
CelestineINDIANA12025
CantonKENTUCKY12023
HustonvilleKENTUCKY12006
JoyKENTUCKY12022
Hodgenville 2KENTUCKY12017
PinevilleMISSOURI12019
CascadeMISSOURI12023
GraydonMISSOURI12018
BarksMISSOURI12024
MincyMISSOURI12024
WrigleyTENNESSEE12014
PeytonsvilleTENNESSEE11993
GlenTENNESSEE12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.