BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Osprey In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGeneralists

Osprey in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 86% on the route-weighted index since 1990.

+86%Since 1990TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Osprey has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 86% on the route-weighted index since 1990.

Osprey In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.02–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.0695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±75%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.02–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.020.06
20260.040.020.06
20270.040.020.06
20280.040.020.06
20290.040.020.06

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Osprey in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wheeler DamALABAMA22023
TrianaALABAMA22011
KarnakILLINOIS22010
RomeOHIO21999
Valhermoso SpgsALABAMA12009
Valhermoso Spg 2ALABAMA12014
Beaverdam LkILLINOIS12013
PimentoINDIANA12015
AzaliaINDIANA12024
MillersburgINDIANA12019
CelestineINDIANA12024
CantonKENTUCKY12023
HustonvilleKENTUCKY12006
JoyKENTUCKY12022
Hodgenville 2KENTUCKY12017
PinevilleMISSOURI12019
CascadeMISSOURI12023
GraydonMISSOURI12018
BarksMISSOURI12024
MincyMISSOURI12024
WrigleyTENNESSEE12014
PeytonsvilleTENNESSEE11993
GlenTENNESSEE12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.