BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Osprey In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionBirds of prey

Osprey in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 754% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+754%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Osprey in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Osprey In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.11–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.11–0.2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.11–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.180.100.26
20270.180.100.27
20280.190.100.27
20290.190.110.27
20300.200.110.28

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Osprey in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Omro 2WISCONSIN82025
RemusMICHIGAN32025
GalesburgMICHIGAN22024
LapeerMICHIGAN22025
Chippewa Lk.MICHIGAN22025
New BuffaloMICHIGAN22003
EdwardsMINNESOTA22024
OmroWISCONSIN22001
ManitowocWISCONSIN22024
Fall RiverWISCONSIN22025
Beaver DamWISCONSIN22013
Cherry ValILLINOIS11997
LakevilleINDIANA12012
Packertown 2INDIANA12025
LagrangeINDIANA12022
LawrenceMICHIGAN12018
NashvilleMICHIGAN12024
DeckervilleMICHIGAN11996
CohoctahMICHIGAN12025
HungerfordMICHIGAN12025
Belding 2MICHIGAN12024
RichmondMICHIGAN12000
MinnetonkaMINNESOTA12024
PrincetonMINNESOTA12013
OsseoMINNESOTA12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.