BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Osprey In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Osprey in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 616% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+616%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Osprey has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 616% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Osprey In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 44% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.10–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-44%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–0.2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Osprey in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 44% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.10–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.170.090.25
20260.170.090.25
20270.180.100.25
20280.180.100.26
20290.180.100.26

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Osprey in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Omro 2WISCONSIN92024
RemusMICHIGAN52024
Chippewa Lk.MICHIGAN42024
GalesburgMICHIGAN22024
New BuffaloMICHIGAN22003
EdwardsMINNESOTA22024
CumberlandWISCONSIN22023
OmroWISCONSIN22001
ManitowocWISCONSIN22024
Beaver DamWISCONSIN22013
Cherry ValILLINOIS11997
LakevilleINDIANA12012
Packertown 2INDIANA12023
LagrangeINDIANA12022
LawrenceMICHIGAN12018
NashvilleMICHIGAN12024
DeckervilleMICHIGAN11996
CohoctahMICHIGAN12024
HungerfordMICHIGAN12017
Belding 2MICHIGAN12024
LapeerMICHIGAN12024
RichmondMICHIGAN12000
MinnetonkaMINNESOTA12024
PrincetonMINNESOTA12013
OsseoMINNESOTA12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.